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Data. Analysis. Advantage.
Arbitrage on prediction markets
2026
Prediction markets
01 / 11

A prediction market is a bet on the future.

Thousands of people bet on anything that might happen. Every question has only two answers: YES or NO.

Weather

Tomorrow, over 17 °C in Paris?

Answer: tomorrow evening

64%chance of YES,
according to the market
Election

Will the incumbent president be re-elected?

Answer: on election night

47%chance of YES,
according to the market
Bitcoin

In 15 minutes, bitcoin higher than at the start?

Answer: in 15 minutes

51%chance of YES,
according to the market
Football

Will France win its next match?

Answer: at the final whistle

Draw = NO
58%chance of YES,
according to the market
How it works
1

Everyone picks YES or NO, and places a bet.

2

At the set time, the answer comes in.

3

Those who were right get their stake back, plus the stakes of those who were wrong.

The percentages move with every bet: it's the bettors who set the odds.

Arbitrage
02 / 11

It doesn’t predict. It arbitrages.

It buys YES on one platform and NO on the other. Whatever the answer, one of the two tickets pays $1.

Bitcoin higher in 15 minutes?Same question, same rules, two platforms

YES48¢1
NO52¢
YES51¢
NO49¢2

Example before fees. Kalshi and Polymarket are cited with no link to NeuralBet.

The algorithm
03 / 11

What the algorithm does, and how often

Five steps, on a loop, all day long. The fourth only fires if the first three are green.

1

Watch

Prices, on both platforms

2

Match

Same question, same time

3

Compute

The spread must reach 3%

4

Execute

Both tickets at the same instant

5

Report

Every trade, line by line

A typical day: 96 quarter-hours68 used

Unused quarter-hours are skipped on purpose: the spread didn't reach 3%.

What makes this pace possible
18 monthsof development, with a dedicated team
≈ $1Minvested in the execution infrastructure
As close as it getsservers installed next to those of both platforms
108 msannounced execution window
$50Mcurrent capacity

Speed decides. Spotting the spread is useless if both tickets aren't bought right behind it.

An observed pace, not a promised return:
it varies every day and cannot be projected.

Safeguards
04 / 11

The risks, and what limits them

Four points to know before depositing.

Fees higher than the spread

Minimum spread of 3%, fees calculated before every order

Only one of the two tickets bought

Orders sent together; the lone ticket is resold, sometimes at a loss

A different answer on each platform

Same rules, same deadline, same sources

Liquidity, network or outage

Cap per trade, automatic stop

If something goes wrong
1Algorithm stopped2Human review3Restart after the fix

These protections reduce the risks; they don’t remove them. Capital and gains are not guaranteed.

Eligibility and access
depend on your country.

The team
05 / 11

Who builds NeuralBet

Crypto on the product side, markets on the execution side.

Portrait of Pierre Lavarague

Pierre Lavarague

Co-founder · NeuralBet
  • Web3 Director at Bitpanda, MiCA-licensed European platform (2025-2026)
  • Head of Business Development at Trust Wallet (Binance), 2022-2025
  • Advisor at Kiln and Mobula, former advisor at Morpho, speaker at NFT Paris
Web3 Wallets Distribution
Portrait of Lucas Caporgno

Lucas Caporgno

Co-founder · NeuralBet
  • Founder of Winastar
  • Manager of a 90-million-dollar fund
  • Expert in online gaming and its markets
Dubai Fund management Online gaming

Together: someone who knows how to build a crypto product people use every day, and someone who knows what execution on real markets demands.

The app
06 / 11

It all happens in Telegram

No app to install: your dashboard opens in Telegram.

The menu
The menu
Your balance, live
Your balance, live
Every trade
Every trade
99.9%

winning trades: the rate shown right now.

Cents, often

Each line is a completed arbitrage, with its gain.

$4 to $5 per trade

Capital is spread across dozens of trades.

Example screenshots. The success rate counts winning trades, not their size. Secure Telegram before your first deposit: the guide shows you how.

The split
09 / 11

The split, line by line

On every winning trade, the gain is split into three fixed shares. The client takes half.

THE CLIENT 50 % THE REFERRAL NETWORK 35 % THE COMPANY 15 % in proportion to their stake the network’s 35% is shared according to the referral plan management margin
Example
Gain after fees$10
→
The client$5
The network$3.50
The company$1.50
NeuralBet charges no Entry fee Exit fee Subscription Deduction from the stake

Performance pays the network, never the client. Without a gain there's nothing to split — and nobody gets paid.

Your money
08 / 11

Your money: deposit and withdraw

The amount is up to you. The starting minimum depends on your group: your referrer confirms it.

Your bankYour currency
Your wallet or ether.fiConversion and transfer
Your NeuralBet accountBalance in USDC

Deposit

Crypto: 0% feesUSDC (Polygon or ERC20) or USDT (ERC20)
Bank card: 3% fees
No maximum

Withdraw

From $5, 0% feesExcluding your wallet or conversion fees
Received within a few hoursIn USDC on Polygon, to your wallet
No maximum
Who does whatTelegramthe interfaceNeuralBetthe arbitrageWinastarcustody of funds*ether.ficonversion, optional

* Multi-signature Safe vault, as presented. You can check your balance in NeuralBet and your transfers on the blockchain.

Capital and gains
not guaranteed.

Simulator
10 / 11

Run your numbers

Set your assumptions and the maths updates live. Client Space projects your net gains; Partner Space your network income.

Your capital
USD

The simulator starts at $3,000. Deposit and withdraw freely, in crypto (USDC); the actual minimum capital differs by region, check with your referrer.

Net monthly return 10.0%

An assumption you set, not a given: the net share that comes back to you on your capital, every month. Paid out daily.

Duration
Gains
Net gains over 12 months
+ 6 415 $
Capital over time — gains kept   - - gains withdrawn
Day 0Day 180Day 360

A projection is not a promise. The amounts shown depend on the assumptions you enter; they are neither a commitment to results nor investment advice.

11 / 11

Get started in 5 steps

Ten minutes to open. The rest runs on its own.

1

Open the link

The one your referrer sends you

2

Start

In Telegram, tap Start

3

Accept

Read and accept the terms of use

4

Open the app

Launch the NeuralBet mini-app

5

Deposit

By crypto or card. Minimum confirmed by your referrer

Withdraw whenever you want, in USDC, within a few hours. Your referrer remains your contact.

Official website neural-bet.com · The only official support @neuralbetsupport: beware of fake accounts.

The market can go up or down: the gain is calculated before committing,
and half of it is yours.

Eligibility and access vary by country. No performance is guaranteed.